{"id":78926,"date":"2026-04-30T12:13:30","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T15:13:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economiasa.com.br\/blog\/?p=78926"},"modified":"2026-04-30T12:13:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T15:13:31","slug":"super-quarta-ipca-a-089-leva-mercado-a-projetar-selic-em-1450","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economiasa.com.br\/blog\/super-quarta-ipca-a-089-leva-mercado-a-projetar-selic-em-1450\/","title":{"rendered":"Super Quarta: IPCA a 0,89% leva mercado a projetar Selic em 14,50%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Infla\u00e7\u00e3o acima do esperado \u00e0s v\u00e9speras das decis\u00f5es do Banco Central e do Fed refor\u00e7a fim do ciclo de cortes no Brasil e eleva cautela global<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Super Quarta desta semana ocorre em um momento de inflex\u00e3o para a pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria. O dado mais recente de infla\u00e7\u00e3o no Brasil, divulgado \u00e0s v\u00e9speras das decis\u00f5es, altera de forma relevante a leitura do mercado e aumenta a press\u00e3o sobre o Banco Central do Brasil, enquanto o\u00a0<strong>Federal Reserve\u00a0<\/strong>segue determinante para o fluxo global de capital. O IPCA-15 de abril avan\u00e7ou 0,89%, praticamente repetindo o ritmo do IPCA cheio de mar\u00e7o, de<strong>\u00a00,88%<\/strong>, segundo o IBGE, e consolidando uma sequ\u00eancia de dados incompat\u00edveis com a trajet\u00f3ria de converg\u00eancia para a meta de infla\u00e7\u00e3o. \u201cA leitura dos dados recentes mostra uma deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o clara do cen\u00e1rio inflacion\u00e1rio. Estamos rodando em\u00a0<strong>n\u00edveis incompat\u00edveis com a meta<\/strong>, o que reduz o espa\u00e7o para flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o monet\u00e1ria\u201d, afirma Volnei Eyng, CEO da Multiplike. Segundo ele, o contexto desta Super Quarta amplia a sensibilidade dos mercados. \u201cQuando Brasil e Estados Unidos decidem juros no mesmo dia, o impacto sobre\u00a0<strong>fluxo de capital, c\u00e2mbio<\/strong>\u00a0e percep\u00e7\u00e3o de risco \u00e9 imediato. Com infla\u00e7\u00e3o pressionada aqui e juros ainda elevados l\u00e1 fora, o cen\u00e1rio tende a exigir ainda mais cautela do Banco Central\u201d, explica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Parte dessa press\u00e3o j\u00e1 tem origem externa. A\u00a0<strong>guerra no Oriente M\u00e9dio<\/strong>\u00a0elevou os pre\u00e7os de energia e mat\u00e9rias-primas, mas o impacto ainda n\u00e3o foi totalmente repassado. Empresas seguem operando com estoques adquiridos a custos anteriores, o que posterga o efeito cheio sobre o consumidor. Esse atraso cria uma din\u00e2mica mais persistente de infla\u00e7\u00e3o, justamente no momento em que a autoridade monet\u00e1ria precisa refor\u00e7ar credibilidade. Com expectativas j\u00e1 desancorando, o Boletim Focus indica I<strong>PCA de 4,86%<\/strong>, acima do teto da meta, refor\u00e7ando a dificuldade de estabiliza\u00e7\u00e3o no curto prazo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 O efeito pr\u00e1tico \u00e9 uma mudan\u00e7a relevante na trajet\u00f3ria esperada para a Selic. O mercado ainda considera poss\u00edvel um ajuste residual, de 0,25 ponto percentual, mas j\u00e1 trabalha com a leitura de encerramento do\u00a0<strong>ciclo de cortes<\/strong>. A partir da\u00ed, o cen\u00e1rio predominante \u00e9 de juros elevados por um per\u00edodo prolongado, com a taxa b\u00e1sica encerrando o ano pr\u00f3xima de\u00a0<strong>14,50%<\/strong>. \u201cO segundo semestre tende a ser mais duro. O cr\u00e9dito continuar\u00e1 caro, seletivo e disputado. Nesse ambiente, faz sentido antecipar decis\u00f5es, refor\u00e7ar caixa e garantir liquidez enquanto ainda existe alguma previsibilidade\u201d, afirma Volnei Eyng. Em um dia que concentra decis\u00f5es globais, a Super Quarta deixa de ser apenas um evento de calend\u00e1rio e passa a ser um divisor de expectativas para o restante do ano.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Infla\u00e7\u00e3o acima do esperado \u00e0s v\u00e9speras das decis\u00f5es do Banco Central e do Fed refor\u00e7a fim do ciclo de cortes no Brasil&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":70309,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[661],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[13237],"class_list":{"0":"post-78926","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-gestao-publica"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Super Quarta: IPCA a 0,89% leva mercado a projetar Selic em 14,50% - Economia S\/A<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/economiasa.com.br\/blog\/super-quarta-ipca-a-089-leva-mercado-a-projetar-selic-em-1450\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Super Quarta: IPCA a 0,89% leva mercado a projetar Selic em 14,50% - 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